The Recap - Gameweek 7
Dumpster Fire Warmth For A Winter That Won't Quit
Could the gameweek have gone worse? Absolutely, however that level of work ethic and dedication required to out do this historic dismal fantasy performance, luckily could not be found or dared to show itself. FlavorTownSC brought in 46 points, in a week where the average round score for fantasy managers was 56. Overall rank has plummeted to 859 and the gameweek 7 rank was 8,394. A lot of things did not go well and the struggle was mighty, just to reach a mediocre level. Going to break down what happened and what will help prepare for gameweek 8. Doesn’t matter how far off FlavorTownSC is from the top 50, 100 or even the number one overall spot as those places might be out of reach for the season.
The Good, The Bad, The MLS
The Good
I captained Dreyer (San Diego), who finished the week with 8 points and was overshadowed by Chucky Lozano - who returned from injury. That was it. I’m slightly concerned that Dreyer might see a decrease in production due to Lozano being back in the lineup and slightly optimistic that it will help his chances.
The Bad
Injuries - Rusnak (Seattle) played forty-five minutes and went until he couldn’t go no more. He won’t play against Dallas next week. Recover quickly, soundly, and soon.
Messi - was this a case of the wrong lineup from MLS or me not looking at the entire field when Miami posted their lineup on Sunday? Messi finished the match with 13 points and this is a lesson of what happens to fantasy MLS managers that don’t have Messi in their squad and don’t captain him - for the second time this season. More nonsense this week, as Messi played against LAFC in a midweek Champions League clash and it’s unclear how many minutes, if any, he’ll play against Chicago. Miami do get a rest from playing midweek matches as Champions League is taking a break.
Midfielder misses - while they were not highly owned last week, Espinoza and McGlynn had great weeks for their clubs. Espinoza received 14 points for his efforts in a 6-1 destruction of D.C. United. And McGlynn was the sole goal scorer against LAFC at home and finished with 6 bonus points. Really, almost any midfielder playing at home would have done the trick.
Minnesota forwards - who to pick each week? Minnesota have a devestating two forward attack and it’s hard to know who will get the goals week in and week out. It’s been Oluwaseyi for the last two weeks, now will it be Yeboah’s turn?
The MLS
Too many players from one match - picking three players in the Philadelphia and Orlando match that finished 0-0 was just a silly idea. While Gazdag and Ojeda finished with 4 points each, Baribo blanked and finished with 2 points. A very bad showing, however I did predict that the match would end in a scoreless draw. The lesson there is not taking a midfielder and forward from the same team, the risk is high and gives less match coverage. But when it works, it REALLY works.
Heavily favored home teams - Columbus should have lost their home match to Montreal 2-4 but were saved by three goals being ruled out due to Montreal goalscorers being offsides. Having a expensive goalkeeper and defender not play well in a favorable fixture is typical MLS. Same for Miami, at home against Toronto, one of the most out of sorts clubs, and that match finished 1-1. Having Alba and Suarez in my lineup, did absolutely nothing as they finished with two and three points respectively.
Strategy & Data
Bonus Points - finding the players who can continue to produce without goal contributions is always key, however it’s even more important this season given that the elite players are struggling to consistently return. Midfielders are still the greatest, the top ten have a range of total bonus points between 28 and 20. Forwards are terribly behind, the top ten range is 17 to 11, and defenders are either getting fresh sheet bonuses or nothing. The top ten range for defenders is 11 to 7. Midfielders are slightly performing better than forwards in overall points and that’s due to bonus points.
Fresh Sheets - last week, like an Elvis concert or a Oprah give away, everyone got a fresh sheet. Just not three of the four defenders I picked. fresh sheet totals went from the season low two weeks ago to the second highest total of fresh sheets last week with eleven clubs shutting out their opponents. What will it be this week?
Home vs Away - last week home teams won 10 of their matches, the highest amount so far this season and above the average of 7 wins per week. Away teams won only 1 match on the road - the lowest amount all season and below the 4 wins per week average. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to matter if the home team is ranked higher in the supporter shield standings or not. It mattered a great deal last week, as 7 of the 10 home teams that won outranked their opponents in the Supporter Shield standings. Away teams that are ranked higher in the Supporter Shield standings are still outperforming their home counterparts 52% to 47%. Neither percentage should fill fantasy managers with confidence as it’s still a coin flip.
Who gets the goals - this is the final look into the numbers that I’ll do this week and home teams are outscoring away teams in terms of matches where the home or away team scores 2 or more goals. Home teams are scoring two or more goals 46% of the time compared to away teams, who score two or more goals 36% of the time. This is MLS and should not be surprising given how the league is structured - home advantage is Queen King. Will the gap widen as the season stumbles along or will quality teams score goals no matter where and when they play?
Onto the surprises that MLS has in store for fantasy managers this weekend.